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The building momentum in the art market is set to culminate in June for the Art Basel mothership fair and the end-of-term auction season in London. The gallery sector remains volatile though, while market experts caution that the mood is still selective.

So far this year, art sales have bucked the volatile, macro geopolitical activity. Healthy and improved auction seasons in London and Hong Kong were followed by New York’s serving of bustling art fairs and a megawatt auction season. Meanwhile, this year’s ongoing Venice Biennale, gives additional attention to the newer artists on the scene, many of whom will be on the Basel booths.

Auction totals at the evening sessions at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips totalled USD 2.1bn (including fees), up from USD 1bn in the equivalent sales last year. Taking the lion’s share was Christie’s, which had the prized collection of the media mogul S.I. Newhouse, 16 works that made USD 631m. These included two nine-figure results: Jackson Pollock’s three-metre wide, “Number 7A, 1948” drip painting at USD 181.2m and Constantin Brâncuşi’s bronze “Danaïde” (c1913) at USD 107.6m, purchased in 2002 for USD 18.2m.

It wasn’t all about one collection. Sotheby’s did well with works from the late dealer-collector Robert Mnuchin on 14 May, topped by Mark Rothko’s “Brown and Blacks in Reds” (1957) at USD 85.8m, a work that had been bought in 2003 for USD 6.7m. The following week, Christie’s had another Rothko, a later, darker work, this time from the estate of the philanthropist Agnes Gund, which sold for USD 98.4m.

For Christie’s, says Max Carter, its global chairman of 20th and 21st century art, “the Monday night [including the Newhouse works] was historic, it is only the second time we have exceeded USD 1bn in a night” (in 2022, the collection of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen made USD 1.5bn).

A rising tide doesn’t lift all boats though. Christl Novakovic, head of �鶹�� Global Wealth Management EMEA and chair of the �鶹�� Art Board says that while “the re-emergence of the USD 10 million-plus segment is an encouraging signal of renewed confidence at the top end,” this “does not necessarily mean that the market as a whole is back to business as usual. Activity remains selective, with collectors showing a clear preference for quality, rarity, and works with strong provenance.”

Less visible though too were the works at auction that had lost value over time. Andy Warhol’s “Double Elvis [Ferus Type]” (1963), a black-and-white, larger than life size silkscreen of the singer, sold for a within-estimate USD 27.1m in May, but had been bought in 2018 for USD 37m. A vibrant Pierre Bonnard still life, “Nature morte au melon” (1941), went for USD 2.9m this year having been bought in 2007 for USD 4m, while an X-rated work by Jeff Koons lost 72% of its value between 2007 and 2026. Placed as the final lot in Christie’s 21st-century evening sale, this seems an expected outcome.

Behind the scenes, the auction houses had secured third-party guarantees for most of their works, giving a sense of predictability to proceedings. Carter says this is now the norm. “As the higher price points become more regular it is now rare not to have works guaranteed,” he says. Some works still performed well without the added assurance of a guarantee, a reminder of the spontaneity that auctions can occasionally still excite in an otherwise sensible market. Claude Monet’s blousy “Pommiers, Vétheuil” (1878), a painting that had been in the same Illinois collection since 1969, sold for USD 19.6mn against an estimate of USD 6mn-8mn.

It wasn’t just the live auctions that had added momentum. Christie’s reports 20,000 visitors to its auction preview in the Rockefeller Centre, its highest ever total. “The atmosphere was electric, which has to carry over to Art Basel,” Carter says.

�鶹��’s Novakovic also expects some ripple effects. “The auction season is likely to set a cautiously optimistic tone. Strong results at the high end tend to reinforce confidence among leading collectors, which can translate into a greater willingness to engage at the fair,” she says. She predicts that “overall, the mood is likely to be measured but engaged, with collectors prioritizing conviction over speed. At the same time, she says, “we expect continued focus on thoughtfully curated presentations and fresh material,” something that plays to the Swiss fair’s strengths.

Works by younger, less tested artists are still less of an easy sell but that leaves room for newer names, albeit of older artists, on the scene. Rachel Peart, art advisory specialist at �鶹��, notes that “the auction houses were just as discerning with their day sale material as for their evening sales,” highlighting the ongoing rediscovery of the Bogotá artist Olga de Amaral. Her gold-leaf “Cesta Lunar 41” (1990), sold for USD 742,400 in Sotheby’s day sale.

Art Basel leans into the next generation of practitioners and collectors by rolling out its Zero 10 section for digital art, launched in Miami in December and with a second outing in Hong Kong this March. For the Swiss fair, this has near doubled in size to 19 exhibitors and will be co-curated by the influential artist Trevor Paglen, who earlier this year won the LG Guggenheim’s Art and Technology prize. Artists on show will include Avery Singer, John Gerrard and a new work by the digital pioneer Vera Molnár.

Meanwhile in the traditional main fair, galleries are preparing to bring out their best for this landmark event. Art Basel’s new “Exclusive” initiative, for which dealers are encouraged to keep works under wraps until the fair opens, aims to add to the buzz of being there, Horowitz says, and should revive a spirit of discovery. Galleries are on board—nearly 200 of the 232 exhibitors in the main fair are participating, Art Basel says, and with artists ranging from Pablo Picasso to Sarah Lucas.

Looking ahead, London’s auction season later in June, sometimes a weaker spot in the market calendar, is looking particularly lively this year. Sotheby’s will have the most valuable single-owner sale in the UK, the GBP 200m-plus works from the collection of Joe Lewis, a currency trader whose family trust owns Tottenham Hotspur football club. The auction house successfully offered four of his School of London works in March.

While the much-improved auction results and prospects are reassuring, the gallery sector is still feeling the pinch in an evolving landscape. In early June, Pace gallery revealed that it was shrinking, cutting the number of artists it represents from about 130 to 80 and reducing staff numbers from around 250 to 200. A spokesperson described the decision as “a reorientation of our model”. Meanwhile, the recently announced closures of Tiwani Contemporary, a London and Lagos-based gallery dedicated to contemporary African art, and the cutting edge Air de Paris gallery were reminders that the good times are not back for all.

Market long-timers still have faith in the convening powers of the Swiss fair. Claes Nordenhake, a gallery founded in Malmö, Sweden 50 years ago and now with outposts in Berlin and Mexico City, has had a booth since 1978 and this year includes work by Ayan Farah, representing Somalia in its first ever Venice Biennale Pavilion.Nordenhake finds that “Art Basel has maintained its spot as the most important meeting place to reach collectors, both old and new.”